AGP Executive Report

Fuel Haulage Dispute: Malawi’s fuel transporters are accusing NOCMA and the Malawi Energy Regulatory Authority of favouring Tanzanian truckers, saying locals wait weeks to load in Dar es Salaam while Tanzanians make multiple trips and get paid in dollars—an issue that hits hard amid Malawi’s foreign exchange squeeze. Public Accountability Pressure: The Ombudsman says only 9 of 22 binding determinations were complied with in 2025/26, as ministries ignore rulings amid weak enforcement and bureaucratic delays. Water & Energy Crisis: HRDC warns of worsening water outages and diesel shortages across Lilongwe, Blantyre and Mzuzu, saying the lack of safe water is raising public health risks. Agriculture Support: IFAD approved a $30.9m (K54.1bn) grant for Malawi to boost productivity and rural livelihoods, including support for FISP as a crisis response. Rare Earths & Mining: Sovereign Metals confirms monazite-hosted heavy rare earths at its Kasiya pits, pointing to a potential third revenue stream alongside rutile and graphite. ICT & Industry Skills: Sparc Systems pledged MK20m to sponsor ICT Expo 2026, backing platforms for startups and young ICT professionals. Court Ruling: Industrial Relations Court cut Patrick Mabedi’s unfair dismissal claim against FAM from MK916m to MK53.7m. Tobacco Worries: The 2026 tobacco marketing season is underperforming, with lower volumes, lower prices and shrinking revenue threatening farmer incomes and foreign exchange.

Rare Earths Boost: Sovereign Metals says monazite-hosted heavy rare earths (including dysprosium, terbium and yttrium) are clearly observable at its Kasiya project in Malawi, with results from four pits showing heavy rare earth ratios far above the world’s biggest producers—potentially turning “tailings” into a new revenue stream. Energy & Cost Pressure: Malawi’s power access gains are being undercut by blackouts and diesel supply problems, keeping businesses and households frustrated even as grid connections expand. Water Priority: At AfDB meetings, Malawi renewed its push for climate and agricultural financing under the ATM strategy, while also committing more resources to revive deteriorating water and sanitation infrastructure. Football Labour Ruling: The Industrial Relations Court cut Patrick Mabedi’s unfair dismissal claim against FAM from MK916m to MK53.7m, ordering payment within seven days. Trade & Jobs Risk: AfCFTA momentum is threatened by transport and border delays that could cost Malawi jobs and market access.

Court Ruling: Malawi’s Industrial Relations Court has ordered the Football Association of Malawi (FAM) to pay sacked Flames coach Patrick Mabedi MK53.7m for unfair dismissal, a major blow after the association fired him just before his one-year mark. Power Crisis: Despite electricity access gains, blackouts and fuel/diesel shortages are still hitting businesses and households, with reports of system breakdowns and life-saving equipment failures. Tobacco Pressure: The 2026 tobacco season is underperforming hard—by week five, sales and revenue are down sharply versus last year, raising fresh forex and farmer-income worries. Procurement & Business Climate: Luthando Holdings clarified a Karonga procurement issue involving Yamaha motorbikes, while CDH Investment Bank put K10m into launching the Companies Registrations & Intellectual Property Centre to speed up formalisation. Digital Push: Sparc Systems pledged MK20m for ICT Expo 2026, and Starlink’s licence/tax questions continue to surface regionally. Justice & Society: Annie Mumba, convicted in a high-profile murder case, has died on bail before her Supreme Court appeal could be heard. Agriculture & Environment: MEPa delays are still slowing fertiliser plant plans, and illegal charcoal activity in Thuma Forest Reserve has led to prison sentences.

Cotton Push: Malawi’s Cotton Council has opened the 2026 marketing season, targeting growth with 13,599 hectares planted and an expected 22,894 metric tonnes, while setting a new strategy aim of 50,000 tonnes next season. Forest Crackdown: Two men were jailed for producing charcoal without permits inside Thuma Forest Reserve, receiving a combined 30-month hard-labour sentence. Business Formalisation: CDH Investment Bank pledged K10m to support the launch of the Companies Registrations & Intellectual Property Centre, aimed at speeding up registration and protecting business rights. Digital Banking Drive: First Capital Bank launched a K50m “Chinthuchi Tatenga” promo to push cash-lite transactions, with K10m as the top prize. AfCFTA Warning: Traders and economists say Malawi could miss AfCFTA jobs and trade gains due to poor connectivity, border delays and persistent barriers. Cost-of-Living Pressure: A fuel crisis protest group warned of lawful action unless government cuts fuel levies and other “unnecessary taxes.” Power Crisis Hits Hard: Egenco admits electricity generation is far below demand, with equipment breakdowns and fuel/spares shortages keeping blackouts going. Human Cost in Health: Dedza Hospital’s grid and backup failures reportedly killed four newborns after power cut-offs. Water Losses: Blantyre Water Board says faulty prepaid meters are draining about K4bn monthly in lost revenue. Mozambique AI Plan: Mozambique opened public consultation on a draft National AI Strategy, including regulatory sandboxes.

AfCFTA Pressure Point: Malawi risks missing AfCFTA trade gains as poor connectivity, border delays and persistent trade barriers keep goods moving slowly and expensively—Mo Ibrahim Foundation says full AfCFTA could lift intra-African trade from 18% to 53%, but Malawi’s road unreliability and visa limits are holding it back. Export Woes: The Malawi Confederation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry warns forex distortions and exchange-rate policy mismatches are pricing Malawian products out of regional markets, shrinking the export base. Power Crisis Hits Health: Dedza Hospital’s nursery ward saw four newborn deaths after load-shedding knocked out oxygen and incubator systems, with fuel and infrastructure gaps blamed. Market Innovation: Market Forum Ltd launched a real-time shop price comparison platform to help shoppers cut costs amid fast-changing prices. Poverty Snapshot: UNDP reports show 10.8 million Malawians trapped in multidimensional poverty. Industrialisation Reality Check: Government data shows Malawi’s industrial plan is 87% complete on activities but only 40% on targets.

Culture & Heritage: Zimbabwe’s Baradzanwa Mbira Festival lit up Culture Month with star performances, including Jah Prayzah, and high-level diplomatic attendance—showing how music is becoming a regional brand. Health Beliefs: Malawi is pushing back on myths with a clear message: “Hypertension isn’t witchcraft,” as rural patients are getting diagnosed and treated for the “silent killer.” Tourism Push: Malawi and Zambia agreed to deepen tourism ties via a Joint Technical Committee, focusing on destination marketing and cross-border products. Trade Test for AfCFTA: AfCFTA faces a new test as Tinubu backs an African commodity exchange to cut reliance on external currencies and markets. Power Crisis: Egenco told Parliament blackouts are far from over—breakdowns, fuel shortages and spare-part limits are squeezing supply, even as demand rises. Labour & Safety: Malawi is also dealing with forced-labour reports involving Malawians held in Myanmar scam operations. Minimum Wage: Government gazetted new minimum wage rates effective June 1, 2026, raising pressure on businesses. Governance Watch: Youth and Society warns of politicised appointments in public institutions.

Power Crisis: Egenco admits Malawi is producing far less electricity than needed, with outages driven by breakdowns at Nkula B and Kapichira II (52MW lost), only 18 of 27 diesel generators working, and spare-part shortages tied to foreign exchange—so blackouts are “far from over.” Water & Costs: Blantyre Water Board says faulty prepaid meters are bleeding about K4bn monthly in lost revenue, while a new minimum wage takes effect June 1, raising pressure on already fragile businesses. Food & Poverty: A regional hunger emergency is worsening beyond “seasonal drought,” with Southern Africa’s climate resilience and preparedness collapsing—while in Malawi rural households are increasingly abandoning gardens for low-paid piece work, deepening food insecurity. Governance & Accountability: Youth and Society warns of politicised appointments in public institutions; Malawi also faces fresh scrutiny over pension fund management and ongoing contract disputes. Trade & Security: Zambezia Province courts Malawian investors via Quelimane Port; meanwhile CDEDI urges vigilance after arrests of foreign nationals linked to alleged illegal mining in Chikwawa.

Governance & Integrity: Youth and Society (YAS) has renewed pressure on Malawi’s public institutions, warning that politicised appointments in statutory bodies are a constitutional and public-confidence problem—not just an administrative one—while also noting recent efforts to clean up irregular public-service wage practices. Energy Reliability: With ESCOM still under scrutiny, attention is back on whether CEO William Kaipa’s reform push can finally steady Malawi’s power supply amid the sector’s long cycle of strain and outages. Food & Health Risks: In Lilongwe, fish traders are reportedly using a crop pesticide (Ethion 50 EC) to preserve fish—raising serious concerns about consumer safety. Economy & Poverty: The RBM says April’s inflation uptick is temporary, but the World Bank warns poor economic management is trapping Malawi in persistent extreme poverty. Mining Security: CDEDI is calling for vigilance after the Malawi Defence Force arrested five foreign nationals in Chikwawa over alleged illegal mining. Trade & Growth: Malawi is also preparing for regional talks on fertiliser, seed harmonisation and agricultural trade as costs and FX pressures bite.

Public Appointments Under Fire: Youth and Society (YAS) has warned the Chief Secretary that politicised appointments in statutory corporations and public institutions are eroding constitutionalism and public trust, even as it credits recent steps to clean up irregular public-service wage billing. Water Pump Contract Clash: A K13.6 billion solar water pump deal is under audit after Fisd Limited allegedly failed to deliver 756 of 800 pumps on time, with the firm blaming FX and site delays. Pension Trust Fund Red Flags: Fresh scrutiny is building around the Public Service Pension Trust Fund, with reports pointing to weak oversight and mismanaged retirement savings. Tobacco Market Shock: Farmers and commentators are alarmed after buyers rejected about 90% of tobacco at auction floors, raising fears for forex as inflation ticks up. Food Safety Warning: Traders in Lilongwe are reportedly using the pesticide Ethion 50 EC to preserve fish—raising health concerns. Mining Security Push: Malawi Defence Force arrested five foreign nationals in Chikwawa over alleged illegal mining, prompting calls for citizens to report suspicious activity.

South Africa Xenophobia Watch: Anti-immigrant protests are flaring again in South Africa, with vigilantes threatening to remove undocumented migrants by June 30—reviving memories of the 2008 violence as anger over jobs, crime and resource pressure fuels scapegoating ahead of November municipal elections. Malawi Tax Ruling: Malawi’s Supreme Court of Appeal has thrown out Illovo Sugar (Malawi)’s bid in a tax dispute with the Malawi Revenue Authority, saying Illovo lacked standing to challenge non-resident tax obligations for South African firms. Fuel Crunch: Fuel shortages are worsening in Malawi, with long queues and delays disrupting transport and threatening supply chains during a critical season. MRA Revenue Push: MRA is registering about 3,000 rented properties in Blantyre and Lilongwe to widen the tax base and tighten rental income compliance. Trade & Industry: Malawi’s trade fair opens in Blantyre as officials urge local manufacturing and value addition to reduce import dependence and boost exports.

Malawi 2063 Funding Watch: The National Planning Commission wants a Multi-Agency Expenditure Monitoring Unit to track whether money for Malawi 2063 actually reaches projects on time, warning that development spending often falls short of allocations and that too many projects dilute resources. Tax Push: Malawi Revenue Authority is stepping up rental property registration in Blantyre and Lilongwe to widen the tax base and improve rental income compliance. Fuel Strain: Fuel shortages are worsening, with long queues and transport delays threatening supply chains and raising costs for businesses and farmers. Trade & Agriculture Systems: Deputy Minister Thoko Tembo launched a $2.8m digital Sanitary and Phytosanitary Information Management System to speed up cross-border clearance for plant and animal products. Tobacco Shock: Parliament hears independent farmers face extreme rejection rates at auction floors, deepening fears of unfair treatment. Regional Context: South Africa’s anti-migrant protests are flaring again, reviving xenophobia concerns amid economic pressure.

Fuel Crisis Tightens: Malawi’s fuel shortages are worsening fast, with long queues in Lilongwe and diesel access sometimes taking days—transporters warn this is already slowing goods movement and hitting farmers during a critical season. Cost-of-Living Pressure: The NSO says April’s fuel price hike (from 1 April) pushed non-food inflation up to 2.6% and kept transport and household energy costs rising, even as food inflation eased with harvest. Trade Push: Trade Minister Simon Itaye urged a shift from importing to producing for export, while a new $2.8m digital Sanitary and Phytosanitary system aims to speed up cross-border clearance for agricultural exports. Tobacco Shock: At Limbe Auction Floors, independent farmers allege buyers are rejecting their tobacco at a staggering 93% rate, with claims of huge pay gaps versus white farmers—sparking outrage and fears of major losses. Local Governance & Security: In Lilongwe’s Msundwe, heavy security helped calm the area and some businesses reopened after tense operations.

Cost-of-Living Pressure: Malawi’s April 2026 CPI paints a grim picture: after fuel prices were hiked on 1 April, non-food inflation jumped to 2.6% (from 1.9% in March), with transport fares and household energy (charcoal, firewood) taking the hit—meaning families feel the squeeze even when food prices ease seasonally. Tobacco Shock: Independent tobacco farmers are crying foul as rejection rates hit about 93% at auction, with buyers reportedly favouring contract growers despite similar quality—threatening heavy losses for smallholders. Rural Poverty Shift: A new study warns millions are moving from their own farms into “ganyu” casual work, trapping households in deeper poverty and food insecurity. Trade Push: Deputy Minister Thoko Tembo launched a $2.8m digital sanitary and phytosanitary system to speed up agricultural export documentation. Security & Business Restart: Msundwe in Lilongwe saw a heavy two-day security operation, and some shops reopened as patrols continue. Finance Literacy: Old Mutual expanded financial education workshops to MDF and other institutions as economic stress grows.

Food Security Shock: WFP warns COVID-19 could nearly double acute hunger to 265 million people by end-2020, with Africa among the hardest hit as trading networks and livelihoods come under pressure. Education Accountability: At Nyamadzere CDSS in Nsanje, at least 15 girls are reported sleeping in a ransacked maize mill after long-abandoned K110 million hostels were left unfinished—raising fresh questions on how public spending reaches learners. Environment & Industry: MEPA has lifted Press Cane’s stop order after nearly five months, saying the ethanol distiller made progress on effluent rehabilitation and compensation for Chikwawa communities. Inflation & Costs: Malawi’s food inflation eased in April thanks to harvesting, but non-food prices stayed high as logistics and fuel costs bite. Forex Pressure: RBM says Malawi’s forex squeeze is worsened by a fuel import bill above $700m versus tobacco earnings under $400m, pushing gold and mining expansion as part of the fix. Security Crackdown: Police and MDF arrested 14 suspects in Msundwe/Nsundwe over assaults, smuggling, illicit alcohol and counterfeit goods.

Forestry Crackdown: Nine people were arrested in Kaning’ina Forest Reserve over illegal logging, charcoal burning and firewood production, with timber, charcoal and tools seized in a joint operation by Forestry, Police, the Defence Force and Parks. Regulatory Turnaround: MEPA has lifted Press Cane’s stop order after progress on effluent pond rehabilitation and compensation—clearing the way for a restart after a five-month shutdown. Farmers Under Pressure: Tobacco auction burley growers say rejection rates are hitting as high as 91%, arguing auction farmers are losing while contract tobacco moves more smoothly. Security Intensifies: Police and the MDF stepped up operations in Msundwe and Nsundwe, arresting 14 suspects tied to assaults, smuggling, illicit alcohol and counterfeit goods, including confiscated ethanol and “Mkalabongo.” Agri-Inputs Push: Wait Holdings has started fertiliser blending in Blantyre at 50MT per hour, aiming to cut reliance on costly imports. Inflation Watch: Ecama warns Malawi must keep food inflation falling fast to reach 15% by March 2027. Water & Tourism Hit: Lake Malawi levels are rising fast, submerging homes and tourism facilities across lakeshore districts.

Fuel & forex squeeze: Malawi is spending over US$700m a year on fuel imports while earning under US$400m from tobacco exports, widening the forex gap and deepening the economic crunch. Security crackdown: Police and the Malawi Defence Force raided Nsundwe in Lilongwe, arresting 14 over suspected illegal fuel and counterfeit beer operations. Water crisis hits tourism: Lake Malawi levels keep rising, submerging homes, resorts and farmland across lakeshore districts, with panic growing as more rainfall could worsen flooding. Court ruling on water board dispute: Malawi’s High Court discharged leave for judicial review in the case of former Blantyre Water Board CEO Yeremia Chihana, saying it’s mainly an employment matter for the Industrial Relations Court. Environment & compensation: PressCane has paid MK895m to Chikwawa communities after an effluent spillage, handing the cheque to the district council for distribution. Telecom growth signal: Airtel Africa says it now has 91m smartphone customers and $6.4bn revenue, but warns investors about the persistent currency headache.